Climate and water: risks and opportunities, the challenge for the MENA region
Blue gold is at the heart of the challenges for the future:
responsible water stewardship to ensure development and stability
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is facing one of the most critical challenges of our time: climate change. As a dossier published by Italy's Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) points out, the region is considered a real “climate hotspot” because the effects of global warming are more rapid and intense here than elsewhere. Heatwaves, water shortages and agricultural difficulties are not future scenarios: they are already everyday realities.
In the last few decades, temperatures in the MENA region have risen faster than the global average. Prolonged heatwaves and recurring drought have made the environmental balance increasingly fragile. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), changes in rainfall distribution have a particularly adverse effect on arid areas like North Africa and the Middle East, exacerbating phenomena such as desertification and soil degradation: a combination that directly threatens food security.
Water: an increasingly rare commodity
Water scarcity is at the heart of the crisis. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), as many as 12 of the world's 17 most water-stressed countries are located in the MENA region. Average availability is just 1,274 m³ per capita per year, well below the critical threshold of 1,700 m³. In some extreme cases it is as low as 50 m³ per person. Inefficient management, pollution and overexploitation of aquifers exacerbate the gap between supply and demand, which, says the World Bank, will increase fivefold by 2050.
Agriculture and food security under pressure
The agricultural sector is the largest consumer of water: about 85% of available resources are used for irrigation. In North Africa, 88% of crops have no irrigation systems and depend exclusively on rainfall. According to the World Food Programme, harvests could drop by 30% by 2050 due to increasing drought.
The social repercussions are severe: loss of income in rural communities, increased pressure on cities and new inequalities. As World Energy Next observes (2023), water stress could amplify dependency on foreign food and exacerbate already serious social tensions. Water scarcity is not just an environmental and economic problem; it is also a political and security issue.
Mitigation and adaptation
As the Istituto Affari Internazionali points out, the climate challenge in the MENA region requires a twofold commitment. On the emissions front, progress remains slow: some countries like Morocco and Tunisia have set ambitious targets on renewables, whereas others remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels.
In terms of adaptation, however, the priorities are clear: resilient agricultural strategies, sustainable water stewardship and regional cooperation. Here, a critical part is played both by climate diplomacy – as was clear from COP27 and COP28 – and by technology: satellite monitoring systems (Copernicus) and new water infrastructure.
The role of business
Alongside the institutions, the corporate world is contributing concrete solutions. Fisia Italimpianti, part of the Webuild group, is a world leader in desalination and water treatment. Its desalination plants in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman guarantee drinking water for millions of people, reducing water stress, supporting food and health security, and providing the prerequisites for socio-economic development. The management of “blue gold” will be an arena of strategic cooperation or competition in the coming decades. In this scenario, industrial technologies are not just a business, they are also an indispensable resource for the resilience of the region.
Conclusions
The MENA region is at a key turning point today. Water is no longer just a natural resource, but the real strategic node around which stability, development and cooperation will be played out in the coming decades. So it is not simply a question of addressing the climate emergency: the challenge is also economic, social and political. Seen from this perspective, water scarcity can be transformed from a factor of vulnerability into an opportunity for innovation. Tools such as re-use of wastewater, desalination and circular economy practices applied to the water cycle offer concrete solutions to reduce waste and maximise efficiency. It is an approach that requires not only state-of-the-art technologies, but also shared governance and long-term policies that promote responsible water stewardship at local and regional levels.
